This is a response to an article from New Europe (http://www.neurope.eu/articles/107733.php) about Ukraine entering the EU. It is in the process of signing an Association Agreement which has historically led countries to membership in the union.
I just finished my thesis on the European Union’s Enlargement history and strategy. I'm fascinated to see how quickly the Ukraine’s development progresses. I hope there are no setbacks. If all goes smoothly, the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine that is currently being drafted will be signed in December 2011, and enter into force one year later in December 2012. Many things ride on the next general election in fall 2012. The next elected government needs to continue to promote EU cooperation. Most likely the presidential elections in March 2015 will be about application for EU membership. The EU has three years and seven months to show the Ukrainian people that membership will be a good thing. Thus, I think the EU should scale down its 'basket cases' in the Balkans, like Albania and Bosnia for the time being and focus on a country that is showing interest and the political will for change and accession.
A successful bid in the parliamentary and presidential elections will most likely lead to an application of membership in mid-2015. By the end of 2016, Ukraine should become an official candidate. At the latest, negotiations would start by the end of 2018 but this may be sooner, perhaps mid-2018. Negotiations can take four to five years and proper accession procedures another two. Thus, the date of 2025 that's been thrown around may be accurate.
A successful bid in the parliamentary and presidential elections will most likely lead to an application of membership in mid-2015. By the end of 2016, Ukraine should become an official candidate. At the latest, negotiations would start by the end of 2018 but this may be sooner, perhaps mid-2018. Negotiations can take four to five years and proper accession procedures another two. Thus, the date of 2025 that's been thrown around may be accurate.
Read more: 'EU will be stronger with Ukraine' - New Europe http://www.neurope.eu/articles/107733.php#ixzz1Vkq7xRIQ
Update!!: Due to setbacks made in 2011-2012 in relation to elections and the Tymoshenko events the agreement has yet to be signed and is due to be signed in November 2013. Again it is likely that it will take a year to enter into force and thus the presidential elections in March 2015 will be about continued promotion of EU cooperation. It seems then likely that only in 2020 will talks of EU membership application be on the table for the Ukrainians. The chain of events are then pretty standard. In mid 2021 they become an official candidate and depending on the Association Agreement and what reforms are necessary it may take another 8-10 years to become members. A revised estimate is now 2030. Depending on the enthusiasm of the 2015 president, it could be sooner.
If the proper judicial reforms are met before the signing in 2013, then perhaps the 2015 elections may be a little more fair and less corrupt.
Read more: http://www.euractiv.com/europes-east/eu-gives-may-deadline-ukraine-news-518052
